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23 May 2008 - With the introduction of a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade scheme in the US, global carbon markets could be worth almost €2 trillion ($3.15 trillion), with total transaction volume forecast at 38bn tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2020, according to environmental market analysts Point Carbon.
According to the estimates, some 67 per cent of this €2 trillion, equivalent to €1.25 trillion, would be traded within a US emissions trading scheme (ETS) while the second largest ETS, the EU scheme, would trade 9 Gt CO2e, equivalent to 23 per cent of the global market.
This is, Point Carbon believes, a possible scenario given that the two main market segments by volume - the US and EU - have already formulated fairly specific proposals for how they will trade carbon in twelve years' time.
The figures, released today in Point Carbon's Carbon Market Analyst, entitled Carbon Market Transactions in 2020: Dominated by Financials?, assume a carbon price in 2020 of €50.
A more conservative scenario explored in the report foresees the prospect that only regional schemes develop in the US. This eventuality, if combined with the least ambitious EU ETS version and only a handful of other countries trading carbon in 2020, would result in transactions of just 8 Gt by 2020.
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