Power Engineering - IEA's World Energy Outlook 2007 focuses on the emerging energy giants, China and India

7 November 2007 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) today. This year's edition focuses on China and India, the world's emerging economic giants, identifying and quantifying the factors that will drive their energy balances, as well as seeking to answer the question: How will their energy choices affect the world as a whole?

The intention of the WEO 2007 is to provide a rigorous quantitative framework to policy makers and others for analyzing future energy developments and energy policy option in China and India, and what they could mean for international energy markets, the world's energy security and the global environment.

As in previous WEOs, a scenario approach has been adopted to examine future energy developments. There are three scenarios that cover the period 2005-2030.

The base projections are derived from a Reference Scenario, which assumes that governments do not introduce any new energy policies, and therefore do not affect the underlying trends in energy demand and supply.

The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses the impact on global energy markets of a package of additional measures currently under consideration that address energy security and climate change - the IEA has identified some 1500 draft policies worldwide.

The final scenario is the High Growth Scenario, which incorporates significantly higher rates of economic growth in China and India compared to those in the Reference Scenario. This scenario tests the sensitivity of China and India's energy demand to economic growth rates, and looks at the implications for global energy trade and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.

* The world's primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario is projected to grow by more than 50 per cent between 2005 and 2030.

* Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) account for 84 per cent of the overall increase in demand.

* In absolute terms, coal sees the biggest increase in demand, showing a 73 per cent jump between 2005 and 2030 and increasing its share of total energy demand from 25 per cent to 28 per cent.

* Electricity use increases its share of final energy consumption from 17 per cent to 22 per cent.

* Approximately $22 trillion of investment in supply infrastructure is required to meet the project global demand.

* Developing countries contribute 74 per cent of the increase in global primary energy use, with China and India alone accounting for 45 per cent of this increase.

* The resurgence of coal is primarily by a booming power sector demand in both China and India.

* In the Alternative Policy Scenario, global primary energy demand grows by 1.3 per cent between 2005 and 2030 – 0.5 percentage points lower than the Reference Scenario.

* Soon after 2010, China will overtake the USA to become the world's largest energy consumer in the Reference Scenario.

* China needs to add more than 1300 GW to its electricity generating capacity, more than the total current installed capacity in the United States.

* In the Alternative Scenario, a set of policies the government is currently considering would cut China's primary energy use in 2030 by 15 percent compared to the Reference Scenario

* In the Reference Scenario, India's primary energy demand more than doubles by 2030, with power generation accounting for the majority of this increase.

* In the Alternative Policy Scenario, India's primary energy demand is 17 per cent lower thin in the Reference Scenarion, through saving primarily in power generation.

* The majority of China and India's increased energy needs to 2030 will be met by imported rather than domestic fuel resources.

* The introduction of new policies that are now under consideration by governments across the world would make a major contribution towards a sustainable energy future.

According to Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, now is the time to "turn our words into actions".

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