PJM forecasts 16.7% growth in peak electricity use over 10 years
18 January 2007 -- Consumers will increase their peak demand for electricity by 16.7 percent over the next 10 years, according to PJM Interconnection, the electric power supply system operator for 13 states and the District of Columbia. The highest growth rate during that time is expected in PJM's Southern Region, which consists of the electric transmission system owned by Dominion.
During the next 10 years, the highest demand for electricity use is expected to grow by 22,861 MW, according to PJM's January 2007 Load Forecast Report. The average annual growth rate in the PJM region is forecast to be 1.6 percent. Over a 10-year period it's roughly like adding to the system Chicago and all of northern Illinois.
The growth rate in PJM's Southern Region (Dominion's territory) is forecast to be 1.9 percent annually. Annual growth at that rate will result in approximately 4,000 MW of additional demand for electricity in 10 years.
"The above average growth in the Southern Region helps drive the need to expand the power supply system there," said Michael J. Kormos, PJM senior vice president - Reliability Services. "In just five years, peak demand in the Dominion territory is forecast to grow by 1,756 megawatts. That's like adding more than a million houses to the system."
In PJM's Western Region, 10-year growth in electricity use is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. The Western Region includes the service territories of American Electric Power, Allegheny Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dayton Power & Light and Duquesne Light.
Peak electric use also will grow 1.5 percent annually in PJM's Mid- Atlantic Region. The region includes the service territories of Atlantic City Electric, Baltimore Gas and Electric, Delmarva Power, Jersey Central Power & Light, Metropolitan Edison, PECO, Pennsylvania Electric Company, Pepco, PPL Electric Utilities, Public Service Electric and Gas Company, Rockland Electric Company and UGI Electric Service.
The forecasts are based on "normal" weather, average peak day temperatures as experienced over many years. Unusually hot weather can push electricity demand exceptionally high in one year. PJM forecasters adjust for such yearly variations to see long-term trends. The PJM region uses the greatest amount of electricity in the summer. High temperatures then cause air conditioners to run more and use more electricity.
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