Power Engineering - Keynote Speakers Look to Responsible Future Generation

"As one of my favorite people, Teddy Roosevelt, said: 'Rhetoric is a poor substitute for action,'" said TXU Vice President of Generation Development Bradley Jones.

Action was the main theme reverberating throughout yesterday's keynote addresses. Each speaker's presentation focused on the action the power industry must take now to meet demand, comply with environmental regulations and invest in new technology that will drive future generation markets.

Steve Bolze, GE President of Power Generation, kicked off the packed keynote event by sharing his perspectives on the world's exponential population growth and its developing economies that are driven by electric generation, infrastructure and reliability. But he recognized the challenges this new world presents, a place full of uncertainty and risk.

One of the greatest uncertainties is over power plant emissions, especially carbon dioxide (CO2). Bolze also highlighted the wave of inflation and skilled labor shortage, volatile fuel prices and international environmental policy changes that he sees as creating the greatest current challenges for the industry. Bolze said the goal for those at POWER-GEN and around the world is finding the answer to "how we grow and still be responsible."

He went on to say that no single policy, fuel or technology will resolve all of these issues and that "there is no silver bullet." But Bolze said that the power generation industry needs to focus on meeting big challenges with big solutions by building a broad span of options.

Technology will play a major role in meeting those goals, and Bolze went over some of GE's recent technology advancements. In the booming gas turbine technology arena, the focus is on efficiency, emissions, operating and fuel flexibility, reliability and availability.
Renewables are growing at an unprecedented rate and Bolze said GE is sold out on its wind turbines until mid-2008. But the same problems with capacity and energy storage still need to be worked out. Nuclear energy's challenges are still safety, reliability and capital cost. Bolze said another key part in the technology push is servicing the existing fleet and improving the assets that are already in place.

Bolze said the path forward will center on technology investment, timely delivery of projects, supporting stable public policy and increasing technology awareness. "It's an exciting time in the power industry business," he said. "There's tremendous opportunity, but a lot of work to do."

Caterpillar Vice President of Electric Power Division William Rohner took the stage next in his presentation on distributed generation and the reciprocal engine business. Rohner focused on the upward trend in power demand, need for reliability and tightening regulatory environment as the key issues in his section of the industry.

He echoed Bolze's observations of the need to meet a growing international population's energy load and the challenges that complying with NOx, particulate and upcoming CO2 regulations pose when working in non-attainment areas where backup generation is needed.

Meeting those needs while keeping emissions in check has created a new environment for distributed generation. Combined heat and power (CHP) projects have regained some popularity because of their efficiency in providing economic solutions for some facilities. Another alternative source that is getting more attention is power produced from a coal seam's methane gas that would otherwise be released into the air. Landfill gas is a similar field that has gained more support and other waste-to-energy projects are attracting more attention. Reformulated liquid fuels such as biofuels and low sulfur diesel are becoming a more important part of the generation mix as well.

Rohner pointed to the European blackout just a few weeks ago that served as a reminder to the fragility of the grid. "Providing reliability is the key to our business," Rohner said. And bringing new ways to increase reliability, meet demand and be in compliance with regulations are the issues facing distributed generation today.

The audience at the keynote address got a Texas welcome from the third speaker who substituted last minute for Mike Childers of TXU. Bradley Jones, TXU vice president of generation development, greeted POWER-GEN attendees with some unabated Texas pride complete with signature cowboy boots.

TXU has released the ambitious plan to add 9.1 GW of new coal-fired generation in Texas by 2011. Jones began his presentation by paraphrasing a few great American thinkers. "I'd like to start by saying that Robert Frost recommended taking the path less traveled; I believe it was Yogi Berra that said when you come to a fork in the road, you should take it. But TXU's response has been to do neither," Jones said. "We plan to blaze a trail of our own."

That trail is unique for three reasons, according to Jones. First, it's unique in scope by planning to build a new fleet of 11 units at about the same time. Second, TXU's schedule raised more than a few eyebrows. The company plans to get most of its pulverized coal plants online by 2011. And finally, TXU Generation is a merchant generator, not a utility with a regulatory backup. TXU relies on its shareholders to fund the project and "they are putting their money at risk for a program they believe in."

Jones presented the numbers and graphs that back up TXU's belief that its reserve margins will be at an unacceptable level in just a few years. The path to greater reliability will not be easy, however, because TXU has also included the mandates that the company will build the projects at a cost of $1,100/kW and lower its overall regulated emissions by 20 percent. Jones also said each reference plant will be "carbon capture ready" and TXU will be prepared for the possibility of future CO2 regulations. In order to keep the costs low compared to expected industry pulverized coal plant cost averages, TXU has already purchased all major equipment needed to build the plants before permits were issued and plans to outsource a significant portion of the plants to foreign sources.

But Jones quipped that the CO2 situation is like a bulldog chasing a car: once he catches it, he's got to figure out what to do with it. Similarly, the industry may be closer to capturing CO2, but storing it will be the key to making the process viable. He noted that the Texas oil industry might prove a good market for sequestered carbon dioxide since it could use it for enhanced I recovery rather than buying CO2 from Colorado. Technology must come before mandates, Jones said after pointing out how in the 1990s California mandated zero emission cars and nothing came of it.

TXU plans to invest in sequestration technology and allow space at all of the new coal plants it plans to build for carbon capture equipment. It also expects to see advances in the ability of supercritical coal plants like the ones it plans to build to capture carbon dioxide.

A viable solution to CO2 capture and storage is still a developing part of TXU's plans. When asked what he would like to see as the headlines of POWER-GEN 2007, Jones responded immediately that he would like to see a cost-efficient, proven technology to capture and sequester greenhouse gases. "That's the news I would most like to see by this time next year," said Jones.

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