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1 April 2009 — The Energy Information Administration is predicting more than twice as many natural gas-fired capacity additions than coal-fired by 2030, continued renewable sector growth and several new nuclear units, according to the agency's 2009 energy outlook report.
Click here to read the Energy Information Administration energy outlook.
The report, which makes predictions based on EIA models up to the year 2030, concludes that concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, volatile fossil fuel prices and the worldwide economic downturn will all be important drivers on U.S. energy markets in the long term.
Although no sweeping federal policy action on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been enacted in the U.S., concerns about cutting emissions have affected investment decisions by power producers, according the report. This could lead to limited additions of new coal-fired generation facilities.
Instead, the power industry is investing more capital in new natural-gas-fired plants, which account for the largest share of new power plant additions, followed by smaller amounts of renewable, coal and nuclear capacity. Existing coal plants, however, continue to be used extensively.
Concerns about GHG emissions have had little effect on building new natural gas-fired capacity, according to the report, which shows natural gas plants accounting for 53 percent of capacity additions by 2030, compared to coal plants at 18 percent of new additions over the same period.
However, coal generation will see only a modest decrease in overall generation, dropping from 49 percent to 47 percent by 2030. Generation from nuclear power will increase by 13 percent by 2030, mostly as a result of new units and capacity upgrades at existing units. The report predicts nuclear generation will rise from more than 100 GW to more than 112 GW in 2030. The forecast includes an expected 10 new nuclear units, with seven units retiring.
Spurred by state-level renewable energy portfolio standards (RPS) and tax credit provisions, renewable generation continues to grow rapidly. The report predicts total renewable generation to grow to more than 14 percent of total power production by 2030.
Rising energy prices and government energy efficiency programs will lead to slower energy consumption growth, according to the report. This, combined with increased use of renewables and fewer new coal-fired plants coming online, will reduce the power generation sector's GHG emission rate over time.
Stories of interest
EPRI report: Large opportunities ahead for low-cost generation technologies
Renewables dominated 2007 capacity additions, EIA says
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